The United States decision to cut international aid funding will affect Nigeria in various ways. One is in the fight against terror groups like Boko Haram and Islamic State West Africa Province operating in the country and across the Sahel region of west Africa. Over the years, the US has granted hundreds of millions of dollars as security assistance to Nigeria, as part of a broader partnership to promote regional security and stability. Security scholar Al Chukwuma Okoli explains the possible consequences of the US funding cuts.
What do the US funding cuts mean for counterterrorism in Nigeria?
The freeze in aid might limit Nigeria’s capacity for counterterrorism operations, increase the country’s vulnerability to terrorist recruitment, and motivate Nigerian authorities to explore domestic solutions.
It’s also possible that the development will create an opportunity for terrorists to exploit.
Reduced capacity for counterterrorism operations:
The US has supported the Nigerian military with training, equipment, logistics and intelligence. Stopping this could undermine Nigeria’s capacity to counter the activities of terrorist groups.
Terrorist groups such as Boko Haram, Ansaru and Islamic State West Africa Province have been very active in northern Nigeria, where they wield competitive territorial control in some rural communities of the north-west and north-east regions.
The aid freeze is equally likely to affect humanitarian assistance to populations affected by terrorism in Nigeria. According to the United Nations’ Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Assistance, no fewer than 7.9 million were in need of humanitarian assistance in Nigeria by 2024. The US has provided humanitarian support for refugees, captive populations, internally displaced persons, and other victims of terrorism.
A reduction in this flow of aid could make the humanitarian situation in the country even worse than it already is.
Increased vulnerability to terrorist recruitment:
The aid freeze may create an atmosphere conducive to recruiting people into terrorism. Poverty, lack of education and unemployment make communities susceptible to recruitment.
Intervention organisations might be set back in their efforts to provide critical services in education, healthcare and economic empowerment. Already, humanitarian operations have been significantly hindered in parts of the regions occupied by terrorists and bandits.
This could make some communities more vulnerable to radicalisation.
Spurring domestic counterterrorism solutions:
The US aid funding freeze may compel Nigeria to look inward for counterterrorism funding, partnerships and solutions.
It might help the country to reduce reliance on foreign assistance and partnerships.
Relying on local solutions also gives the country the advantage of protecting itself against possible sabotage by foreign elements. Security assistance could be used to subvert the country’s sensitive security interests.
How can terrorist groups exploit the situation?
Terrorist organisations thrive on opportunities to take advantage of a situation. They could exploit operational gaps and capitalise on the humanitarian crisis that the funding freeze may cause.
Exploiting operational gaps
With reduced US counterterrorism support, Nigerian security forces may struggle to cover all areas effectively. Terrorist groups might be able to move and operate more freely.
The end of US intelligence support could weaken Nigeria’s capacity for gathering and analysing intelligence.
This would make it more difficult to anticipate and disrupt terrorist activities in a technically precise and focused manner.
Capitalising on humanitarian crises
Humanitarian crises make populations vulnerable. Terrorist groups often exploit that to spread their extremist messages, recruit new members and win the hearts and minds of local communities.
The withdrawal of US aid funding could complicate humanitarian challenges in Nigeria.
In locations where the Nigerian government is perceived as ineffectual, terrorist groups may provide alternative governance structures, offering basic services and winning the support and acceptance of the people.
The economic and humanitarian consequences of the aid freeze could lead to greater dissatisfaction among young Nigerians. They might form a pool of potential recruits and support-agents for terrorism.
Enhancing propaganda
Terrorists could use the US decision to further their propaganda against the US-Nigeria defence and security partnership.
The propaganda might portray the US as an unreliable and illegitimate partner.
What can be done about these threats?
To block the gaps created by the US freeze of counterterrorism funding, Nigeria needs to look inward. It can consider a number of strategic options:
Diversify funding sources
One option is the European Union, which has been providing significant support to Nigeria’s counterterrorism efforts. The EU has been one of the biggest external financiers of counterterrorism in Nigeria. Through its CTED-UNODC Partnership Project, the EU has facilitated the training of 7,765 criminal justice personnel on aspects of counterterrorism investigation, prosecution and adjudication.
Other options include the United Kingdom, China, and African military powers such as Egypt.
China has increasing interests in security governance in Africa.
Regional cooperation
Nigeria needs to strengthen its cooperation and security alliances with neighbouring countries. A case in point is the Multinational Joint Task Force, a regional security formation aimed at combating Boko Haram in the Lake Chad region.
The Economic Community of West African States and the Lake Chad Development Commission can also be explored for collective security potential.
Domestic resource mobilisation
Nigeria can increase its domestic budget allocation for counterterrorism efforts and use the resources effectively.
Private sector partnerships can be explored, in addition to calling on goodwill, expertise and cooperation.
Improve operational efficiency
Nigeria can improve the efficiency and effectiveness of its security sector to reduce waste and use resources optimally.
It can explore opportunities for intelligence-led operations. This involves using data and analysis.
What lies ahead
Withdrawal of US aid will have some negative outcomes. But Nigeria needs to take full responsibility for its own security without waiting for foreign handouts.
Less dependence on the US may result in a stronger, more self-sufficient Nigeria that can solve its own national security problems.
Mark Peter Jatau, a postgraduate student in the Department of Political Science, Covenant University, Ota, Nigeria contributed to this article.
Al Chukwuma Okoli, Reader (Associate Professor) Department of Political Science, Federal University of Lafia, Nigeria, Federal University Lafia
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license.
